Category: Strategic Theory
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[Cross-Post] Reconstructing the Ladder: Towards a More Considered Model of Escalation
Jonah here. For long-time readers of the blog, you might have been aware that models of conflict and strategic escalation, specifically escalation ladders, have long been a fascination of mine. My first piece on them in 2020 tried to explore how the spectre of grey zone warfare confounded traditional deterrence theory and demanded the use…
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Spooky Reflections: Three Intelligence Questions from February 2022
Three reflections on intelligence, and how we should understand and evaluate its community, objectives, practitioners and practices
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Third Pole: How Settler Colonialism locks conflict and undermines Empire
How settler colonisation tends to build the settler caste up as a “third pole”, in competition with both the indigenous population and the imperial core, ensuring the enduring stability of a horrific state of war and struggle.
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Interrogating intentionality in Autocracy Promotion
In discussing the spread of autocratic or otherwise anti-democratic forces, there is a tendency to frame such trends through the broad umbrella term of “autocracy promotion”. It is a seductive term, one that conjures images of secret operations conducted by supervillain spymasters seeking to bring about a dangerous new world order for the sake of…
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Thought Salad: The Case of Meng Wanzhou and Two Michaels from the perspective of Strategic Theory
Thought Salad is a raw, slightly messy, short-form medley of ideas to accompany the main content of the blog. Today’s Main: Functions of Arms and Interstate Violence: An Expanded Framework Deterrence consists of threats of force designed to persuade a target to refrain from taking a particular action. Compellence, by contrast, utilizes force — or…
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Functions of Arms and Interstate Violence: An Expanded Framework
This piece shall strive to act as a reminder and interpretation of as well as an update to Schelling’s classic work of strategic studies. Assisted by original diagrams that map out Schelling’s strategic theory, the first half shall seek to adapt Schelling’s Cold War US-centric theory for a more general model of conflict that broadly…
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A Gray-Zone shaped Hole: Why “Escalation Ladders” affect Deterrence analysis and planning
this essay will attempt to build upon LTC Harris Tan’s piece on deterrence through adopting and adapting the “escalation ladder” to think about conflict and aggression with greater logical specificity and clarity.
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Sowing Addiction, Reaping Reliance: The Imperial Hard-Power Logic of Foreign Aid
To people who are fundamentally distrustful of the loyalty of friends and partners in International Relations, foreign aid can seem like a frivolous expenditure of critical state resources. This piece will seek to prove that with some strategic imagination and material re-prioritization, foreign aid can still be used as an excellent method of intense, even…
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Feeding the Dogs of War: Dynamics, Utility and Risks of Sponsored Insurgency in Border Competition
A security-studies approach to analysing sponsoring insurgency as a tool in the power projection toolbox, explaining why it is used in border competition specifically and the associated risks.
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Evaluating Allies: What makes a good partner
With the Trump-Brexit and coronavirus-accelerated reshuffling of global order, recent reexaminations and reimaginings of global alliance have been rife. Questions of new sets of alliances, alignments and understandings are now common, whether it be Macron’s suggestions of a new European-Russian reset or renewed talks around whether the Quad could actually be a functional China-containment coalition.…
UnderStated 